Greater Manchester Transport Model

Greater Manchester Transport Model

Model Overview

SYSTRA developed the Greater Manchester Transport Model 1996 and has regularly updated and applied the modelling suite ever since. The core 4-stage Tag compliant model includes a Saturn based highway network and a cube based Public Transport networks which are combined using a Variable Demand Modell which utilises our inhouse demand modelling suite (TRAM) to include the standard responses ( destination, mode choice, trip frequency and time of day);

The External Forecasting Model (EFM) is the component of Demand Model used to create matrices for input to the main demand/supply model. The EFM has three main functions, which are to:

  • Derive travel patterns associated with developments based on input trips ends segmented by mode and time period totals. Distributions are derived by applying a gravity model.
  • Apply background growth constraint to the overall growth.
  • Apply target growth constraints for freight travel.

Model Application

Over the years, SYSTRA have used the model for many applications including;

  • Manchester’s Transport Innovation Fund bid - our work on the TIF bid eventually helped to secure £1bn to fund the Phase 3 Metrolink extensions to Ashton, Manchester Airport, East Didsbury, and Rochdale
  • Manchester Metrolink – we have helped develop business cases, secure funding and TWAO Orders for a number of Metrolink extensions including for a second Metrolink alignment through the city centre, the extension through Trafford Park to the Trafford Centre and the extension to serve the new terminal at the airport and the proposed HS2 station.
  • National Highways - SYSTRA has used the model on a series of business cases for M60 Managed Motorway, M60 North West Quadrant, and a link road to Manchester airport from the A6 near Stockport.
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