EV Demand Forecasting Study for the Climate Change Committee

EV Demand Forecasting Study for the Climate Change Committee

Plugging the Gap - Predicting the demand for and optimising the supply of Britain’s publicly-available EV charging infrastructure.

The UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) commissioned a consortium headed by SYSTRA to undertake an analysis of future requirements for publicly-available Electric Vehicle charging infrastructure across mainland Great Britain.

The study report, ‘Plugging the Gap, What’s Next for Britain’s Public Charging Network’ was published in January 2018 and the conclusions from the Study were presented to the UK Parliament in June 2018 and have helped inform the UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget and to guide policy on the development on the EV charging network.

Download the study from the Climate Change Committee website


SYSTRA developed two optimisation tools to meet Climate Change Committee’s requirements:

  • an en-route charging optimisation (ERCO) model of Great Britain: this was used to test a wide range of alternative scenarios for future years built around EV market penetration and battery range assumptions, to identify locations where additional rapid charging is most required on the strategic road network; and
  • an extended version of SYSTRA’s OPOSRI Model - Optimising the Provision of On-street Recharging Infrastructure, which optimises the publicly-available parking-based charging infrastructure, including on and off-street parking, overnight parking by local residents and the use of Park and Ride facilities and considers the trade-offs between price and charging speed across a range of rapid, fast, and slow chargers.

Together the two tools considered the level of provision of publicly-available chargers needed to support long distance en route charging, parking-based charging (including overnight on-street EV charging by local residents), Park and Ride sites, e-taxis and other commercial fleets and local rapid charging (analogous to conventional refuelling at local filling stations) and how the demand for these will grow, as the penetration of EVs moves beyond those with ready access to EV home charging.

Find out more about SYSTRA’s Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Solutions for Local Areas & Cities or do get in touch if you would like discuss your next project.

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